Individualised risk prediction model for exacerbations in patients with severe asthma: protocol for a multicentre real-world risk modelling study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Severe asthma is associated with a disproportionally high disease burden, including the risk of severe exacerbations. Accurate prediction of the risk of severe exacerbations may enable clinicians to tailor treatment plans to an individual patient. This study aims to develop and validate a novel risk prediction model for severe exacerbations in patients with severe asthma, and to examine the potential clinical utility of this tool. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The target population is patients aged 18 years or older with severe asthma. Based on the data from the International Severe Asthma Registry (n=8925), a prediction model will be developed using a penalised, zero-inflated count model that predicts the rate or risk of exacerbation in the next 12 months. The risk prediction tool will be externally validated among patients with physician-assessed severe asthma in an international observational cohort, the NOVEL observational longiTudinal studY (n=1652). Validation will include examining model calibration (ie, the agreement between observed and predicted rates), model discrimination (ie, the extent to which the model can distinguish between high-risk and low-risk individuals) and the clinical utility at a range of risk thresholds. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has obtained ethics approval from the Institutional Review Board of National University of Singapore (NUS-IRB-2021-877), the Anonymised Data Ethics and Protocol Transparency Committee (ADEPT1924) and the University of British Columbia (H22-01737). Results will be published in an international peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: European Union electronic Register of Post-Authorisation Studies, EU PAS Register (EUPAS46088).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.055 | 0.080 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.046 | 0.007 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".