Phenological Features of the Spongy Moth, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), in the Northernmost Portions of Its Eurasian Range
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The spongy moth, Lymatria dispar, is a classic example of an invasive pest accidentally introduced from Europe to North America, where it has become one of the most serious forest defoliators, as in its native range. The present study was aimed at (i) identifying the current northern limit of L. dispar’s Eurasian range and exploring its northward expansion in Canada using pheromone trap data, and (ii) comparing northern Eurasian populations with those from central and southern regions with respect to male flight phenology, the sums of effective temperatures (SETs) above the 7 °C threshold necessary for development to the adult stage, and heat availability. We show that the range of L. dispar in Eurasia now reaches the 61st parallel, and comparisons with historical data identify the average speed of spread as 50 km/year. We also document the northern progression of L. dispar in southern Canada, where the actual northern boundary of its range remains to be identified. We show that the median date of male flight does not vary greatly between northern and southern regions of the spongy moth range in Eurasia despite climate differences. Synchronization of flight at different latitudes of the range is associated with an acceleration of larval development in northern Eurasian populations. Similar changes in developmental rate along a latitudinal gradient have not been documented for North American populations. Thus, we argue that this feature of spongy moths from northern Eurasia poses a significant invasive threat to North America in terms of enhanced risks for rapid northward range expansion.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".