Consumer Behavior in the Face of the Coronavirus Pandemic: An Analysis of Credit and Debit Card Spending at Brazilian States
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The paper analyzes credit and debit card consumer spending and correlates it with the social isolation measures enacted as a result of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. Correlations were estimated between the variation in spending in different economic sectors and the Social Distancing Index (IDS) proposed by IPEA. The results show the importance of the essentiality of goods, the mobility of consumers during the pandemic and quarantine and the way in which social isolation measures affect each consumer sector. Essential sectors without mobility problems had an increase in consumption and oscillatory behavior of consumption spending during the period. Non-essential goods sectors saw a sharp reduction in consumption spending followed by a gradual recovery. Sectors associated with mobility (whether essential or not) had a sharp reduction and did not have a clear recovery in the period. In addition, there is strong evidence that possibly institutional variations between states have relevant effects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".