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Record W4353080673 · doi:10.1214/22-aap1846

Complexity results for MCMC derived from quantitative bounds

2023· article· en· W4353080673 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueThe Annals of Applied Probability · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicMarkov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMathematicsMarkov chainUpper and lower boundsMixing (physics)EstimatorGibbs samplingConvergence (economics)Markov chain Monte CarloState spaceDimension (graph theory)Applied mathematicsState (computer science)Mathematical optimizationAlgorithmCombinatoricsMonte Carlo methodStatisticsMathematical analysisBayesian probability

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This paper considers how to obtain MCMC quantitative convergence bounds which can be translated into tight complexity bounds in high-dimensional settings. We propose a modified drift-and-minorization approach, which establishes generalized drift conditions defined in subsets of the state space. The subsets are called the “large sets”, and are chosen to rule out some “bad” states which have poor drift property when the dimension of the state space gets large. Using the “large sets” together with a “fitted family of drift functions”, a quantitative bound can be obtained which can be translated into a tight complexity bound. As a demonstration, we analyze several Gibbs samplers and obtain complexity upper bounds for the mixing time. In particular, for one example of Gibbs sampler which is related to the James–Stein estimator, we show that the number of iterations required for the Gibbs sampler to converge is constant under certain conditions on the observed data and the initial state. It is our hope that this modified drift-and-minorization approach can be employed in many other specific examples to obtain complexity bounds for high-dimensional Markov chains.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.178
Threshold uncertainty score0.546

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.537
GPT teacher head0.464
Teacher spread0.072 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it