Future Increases in North American Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Downscaled with LOCA
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A new set of CMIP6 data downscaled using the localized constructed analogs (LOCA) statistical method has been produced, covering central Mexico through southern Canada at 6-km resolution. Output from 27 CMIP6 Earth system models is included, with up to 10 ensemble members per model and 3 SSPs (245, 370, and 585). Improvements from the previous CMIP5 downscaled data result in higher daily precipitation extremes, which have significant societal and economic implications. The improvements are accomplished by using a precipitation training dataset that better represents daily extremes and by implementing an ensemble bias correction that allows a more realistic representation of extreme high daily precipitation values in models with numerous ensemble members. Over southern Canada and the CONUS exclusive of Arizona (AZ) and New Mexico (NM), seasonal increases in daily precipitation extremes are largest in winter (∼25% in SSP370). Over Mexico, AZ, and NM, seasonal increases are largest in autumn (∼15%). Summer is the outlier season, with low model agreement except in New England and little changes in 5-yr return values, but substantial increases in the CONUS and Canada in the 500-yr return value. One-in-100-yr historical daily precipitation events become substantially more frequent in the future, as often as once in 30–40 years in the southeastern United States and Pacific Northwest by the end of the century under SSP 370. Impacts of the higher precipitation extremes in the LOCA version 2 downscaled CMIP6 product relative to the LOCA downscaled CMIP5 product, even for similar anthropogenic emissions, may need to be considered by end-users.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it