FitFun: A Modelling Framework for Successfully Capturing the Functional Form and Noise of Observed Traffic Flow-Density-Speed Relationships
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Measurements of the average properties of vehicular traffic are inherently noisy. The distributions of flow and speed measurements at any particular density are non-Gaussian with density-dependent variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Previous studies have failed to properly account for these complicated noise properties. In remediation, we present FitFun, a general framework for modelling any observed flow-density-speed relationship. Models specified within FitFun incorporate components for both the functional form and the noise. We define three flexible noise model components and we fit 200 different models to a high-quality sample of 10,150 observed urban flow-occupancy relationships. We compare the fits using information criteria and assess fit quality through analysis of the residuals. We find that the non-parametric Sun model for the functional form component combined with a Skew Exponential Power Type III noise component significantly outperforms all of the other models. Interestingly, we find that the city, country, road topology, and detector location have virtually no impact on model performance and fit quality, which is very convenient for model selection. The only factor of relevance from those that we studied is the effective occupancy coverage of the data. We conclude that certain models specified judiciously within FitFun can successfully capture the functional form and noise of observed flow-density-speed relationships without the need to discard data taken during non-stationary conditions. This is particularly advantageous for urban data where stationary traffic conditions are rarely observed. Accepted by Transportation Research Part C on 16th Feb 2023.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.027 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".