Revisiting pathogen transmission in epidemiological models and its role in the disease-diversity relationship
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With the rising frequency of pathogen spillover worldwide, wildlife disease dynamics have received increased attention. There are many possible pathway a pathogen can invade and spread through a host population, and the assumed transmission model used to capture disease propagation can influence predictions of pathogen net reproductive success (R0), determining the outbreak dynamics. We synthesize a comprehensive overview of these models and overarching implications, using bovine Tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) as a case study. We unify sub-models from the disease ecology literature and clarify the biological motivation behind these models and resulting ecological dynamics. We warn readers of pitfalls regarding the relative orders of the transmission parameters and reiterate that the contact rate determines the transmission model and thus defines key dynamical properties of an outbreak. Transmission in wildlife is linked to ecosystem and human health, and host community structure can mediate pathogen spread. We link these models with disease-biodiversity theories, by considering the role of host diversity in disease transmission, contributing to the debate on the effect of biodiversity and on disease outbreak potential. We decompose the various mechanisms of transmission in a stepwise process, and provide the reader a guide for modelling pathogens in both single-host and multi-host systems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".