Influence of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation on Continental United States Hurricane Landfalls
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) significantly impacts North Atlantic hurricanes, with increased hurricane activity occurring when the MJO enhances convection over Africa and the tropical Indian Ocean and suppressed hurricane activity occurring when the MJO enhances convection over the tropical Pacific. Using data from 1905 to 2015, we find more tropical cyclones (TCs) make landfall in the continental United States when the MJO enhances tropical Indian Ocean convection. In addition, when the MJO enhances Western Pacific and Western Hemisphere convection, TC activity is preferentially favored in the Caribbean, leading to more Gulf Coast landfalls. As MJO‐enhanced convection moves to the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, more storms form in the tropical Atlantic, favoring Florida Peninsula and East Coast landfalls. The MJO's TC steering wind modulation appears to be secondary to its genesis location modulation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".