Development of a model for Colletotrichum diseases with calibration for phylogenetic clades on different host plants
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fungi in the genus Colletotrichum cause serious pre- and post-harvest losses to several agricultural crops worldwide. Through a systematic literature review, we retrieved the published information on Colletotrichum anthracnose diseases on different host plants and developed a mechanistic model incorporating the main stages of the pathogen’s life cycle and the effect of weather. The model predicts anthracnose progress during the growing season on the aerial organs of different crops, and was parameterized for seven Colletotrichum clades (acutatum, dematium, destructivum, gloeosporioides, graminicola, and orbiculare) and the singleton species, C. coccodes. The model was evaluated for the anthracnose diseases caused by fungi belonging to five clades on six hosts by using data from 17 epidemics that occurred in Italy, the USA, Canada, and Japan. A comparison of observed versus predicted data showed a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.928 and an average distance between real data and the fitted line of 0.044. After further validation, the model could be used to support decision-making for crop protection.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".