Development of a Nomogram to Estimate the 60-Day Probability of Death or Culling Due to Severe Clinical Mastitis in Dairy Cows at First Veterinary Clinical Evaluation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Severe clinical mastitis is a frequent disease of dairy cattle. An effective mean of predicting survival despite treatment would be helpful for making euthanasia decisions in poor prognosis cases. The objective was to develop a nomogram for prediction of death or culling in the 60 days following a severe mastitis episode in dairy cows at first veterinary visit in farm settings. A total of 224 dairy cows presenting severe clinical mastitis and examined for the first time by a veterinarian were included in a prospective study. Clinical and laboratory (complete blood cell count, L-lactate, cardiac troponin I, milk culture) variables were recorded. Animals were followed for 60 days. A nomogram was built with an adaptive elastic-net Cox proportional hazards model. Performances and relevance were evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and misclassification cost term (MCT). The nomogram included: lactation number, recumbency, depression intensity, capillary refilling time, ruminal motility rate, dehydration level, lactates concentration, hematocrit, band neutrophils count, monocyte count, and milk bacteriology. The AUC and C-index showed a good calibration and ability to discriminate. The DCA suggested that the nomogram was clinically relevant. Euthanizing animals having less than 25% probability of survival is economically optimal. It could be used for early euthanasia decisions in animals that would not survive despite treatment. To facilitate the use of this nomogram by veterinarians, a web-based app was developed.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it