Predict Changes in Crude Oil Price and New Energy Automobile Industry Impacted by the Russian-Ukraine War
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Russian-Ukraine War is a hot topic nowadays as it causes a sharp rise in the world crude oil price, due to fears of supply shortages mount, which affects the cost of production for many industries. Meanwhile, the fear of running out of crude oil pushes the world to find new energy as a substitute. The car industry is an outstanding example that is experiencing transit from oil cars to new energy cars. Hence, there exist close relationships between the crude oil price and the new energy car industry. The article will discuss the short-run and long-run impact of the Russian-Ukraine War on crude oil prices and the Chinese new energy car industry using the VAR and ARMA-GARCH model. The models show that the effect of rising crude oil prices on the Chinese new energy automobile industry depends on whether the positive effect of sales growth is greater than the negative effect of the increase in cost in the short run, plus there’s no significant impact for the long term.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".