A Comparative Analysis of SMAP-Derived Soil Moisture Modeling by Optimized Machine Learning Methods: A Case Study of the Quebec Province
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Many hydrological responses rely on the water content of the soil (WCS). Therefore, in this study, the surface WCS products of the Google Earth Engine Soil Moisture Active Passive (GEE SMAP) were modeled by a support vector machine (SVM), and extreme learning machine (ELM) models optimized by the teacher learning (TLBO) algorithm for Quebec, Canada. The results showed that the ELM model is only able to forecast 23 steps with Correlation Coefficient (R) = 0.8313, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 6.1285, and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 5.0021. The SVM model could only estimate the future steps, one step ahead, with R = 0.8406, RMSE = 18.022, and MAE = 17.9941. Both models’ accuracy dropped significantly while forecasting longer periods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".