Cardiovascular risk of metabolically healthy obesity in two european populations: Prevention potential from a metabolomic study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background A new definition of metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) has recently been proposed to stratify the heterogeneous mortality risk of obesity. Metabolomic profiling provides clues to metabolic alterations beyond clinical definition. We aimed to evaluate the association between MHO and cardiovascular events and assess its metabolomic pattern. Methods This prospective study included Europeans from two population-based studies, the FLEMENGHO and the Hortega study. A total of 2339 participants with follow-up were analyzed, including 2218 with metabolomic profiling. Metabolic health was developed from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the UK biobank cohorts and defined as systolic blood pressure < 130 mmHg, no antihypertensive drugs, waist-to-hip ratio < 0.95 for women or 1.03 for men, and the absence of diabetes. BMI categories included normal weight, overweight, and obesity (BMI < 25, 25–30, ≥ 30 kg/m2). Participants were classified into six subgroups according to BMI category and metabolic healthy status. Outcomes were fatal and nonfatal composited cardiovascular events. Results Of 2339 participants, the mean age was 51 years, 1161 (49.6%) were women, 434 (18.6%) had obesity, 117 (5.0%) were classified as MHO, and both cohorts had similar characteristics. Over a median of 9.2-year (3.7–13.0) follow-up, 245 cardiovascular events occurred. Compared to those with metabolically healthy normal weight, individuals with metabolic unhealthy status had a higher risk of cardiovascular events, regardless of BMI category (adjusted HR: 3.30 [95% CI: 1.73–6.28] for normal weight, 2.50 [95% CI: 1.34–4.66] for overweight, and 3.42 [95% CI: 1.81–6.44] for obesity), whereas those with MHO were not at increased risk of cardiovascular events (HR: 1.11 [95% CI: 0.36–3.45]). Factor analysis identified a metabolomic factor mainly associated with glucose regulation, which was associated with cardiovascular events (HR: 1.22 [95% CI: 1.10–1.36]). Individuals with MHO tended to present a higher metabolomic factor score than those with metabolically healthy normal weight (0.175 vs. -0.057, P = 0.019), and the score was comparable to metabolically unhealthy obesity (0.175 vs. -0.080, P = 0.91). Conclusions Individuals with MHO may not present higher short-term cardiovascular risk but tend to have a metabolomic pattern associated with higher cardiovascular risk, emphasizing a need for early intervention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".