Implications of building code enforcement and urban expansion on future earthquake loss in East Africa: case study—Blantyre, Malawi
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Rapid and uncontrolled urbanisation in many parts of Africa is a significant driver of earthquake risk. New constructions are usually built with no compliance with seismic codes, which results in a critical increase in the vulnerability of the building stock. To quantitatively assess the potential consequences of unregulated urbanisation, this study investigates the effect of building code enforcement and urban expansion on the future earthquake loss in the city of Blantyre, Malawi. The analysis, performed within a probabilistic loss assessment framework, estimates the net present value of 30-year aggregated seismic loss for different urban expansion rates and code enforcement scenarios. The results show that high urbanisation rates and lack of building regulations could lead to a threefold increase in average seismic losses in the next thirty years. On the contrary, effective code enforcement could cap the seismic loss increase at 13%, highlighting the financial gain from effective disaster risk reduction programmes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".