Association of Mortality and Risk of Epilepsy With Type of Acute Symptomatic Seizure After Ischemic Stroke and an Updated Prognostic Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: Acute symptomatic seizures occurring within 7 days after ischemic stroke may be associated with an increased mortality and risk of epilepsy. It is unknown whether the type of acute symptomatic seizure influences this risk. Objective: To compare mortality and risk of epilepsy following different types of acute symptomatic seizures. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed data acquired from 2002 to 2019 from 9 tertiary referral centers. The derivation cohort included adults from 7 cohorts and 2 case-control studies with neuroimaging-confirmed ischemic stroke and without a history of seizures. Replication in 3 separate cohorts included adults with acute symptomatic status epilepticus after neuroimaging-confirmed ischemic stroke. The final data analysis was performed in July 2022. Exposures: Type of acute symptomatic seizure. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality and epilepsy (at least 1 unprovoked seizure presenting >7 days after stroke). Results: A total of 4552 adults were included in the derivation cohort (2547 male participants [56%]; 2005 female [44%]; median age, 73 years [IQR, 62-81]). Acute symptomatic seizures occurred in 226 individuals (5%), of whom 8 (0.2%) presented with status epilepticus. In patients with acute symptomatic status epilepticus, 10-year mortality was 79% compared with 30% in those with short acute symptomatic seizures and 11% in those without seizures. The 10-year risk of epilepsy in stroke survivors with acute symptomatic status epilepticus was 81%, compared with 40% in survivors with short acute symptomatic seizures and 13% in survivors without seizures. In a replication cohort of 39 individuals with acute symptomatic status epilepticus after ischemic stroke (24 female; median age, 78 years), the 10-year risk of mortality and epilepsy was 76% and 88%, respectively. We updated a previously described prognostic model (SeLECT 2.0) with the type of acute symptomatic seizures as a covariate. SeLECT 2.0 successfully captured cases at high risk of poststroke epilepsy. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, individuals with stroke and acute symptomatic seizures presenting as status epilepticus had a higher mortality and risk of epilepsy compared with those with short acute symptomatic seizures or no seizures. The SeLECT 2.0 prognostic model adequately reflected the risk of epilepsy in high-risk cases and may inform decisions on the continuation of antiseizure medication treatment and the methods and frequency of follow-up.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".