Predicting depression risk in early adolescence via multimodal brain imaging
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Depression is an incapacitating psychiatric disorder with high prevalence in adolescent populations that is influenced by many risk factors, including family history of depression. The ability to predict who may develop depression before adolescence, when rates of depression increase markedly, is important for early intervention and prevention. Using a large longitudinal sample from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study (2658 participants after imaging quality control, between 9-10 years at baseline), we applied machine learning methods on a set of comprehensive multimodal neuroimaging features to predict depression risk at the two-year follow-up from the baseline visit. Features include derivatives from structural MRI, diffusion tensor imaging, and task and rest functional MRI. A rigorous cross-validation method of leave-one-site-out was used. Additionally, we tested the prediction models in a high-risk group of participants with parental history of depression (N=625). The results showed all brain features had prediction scores significantly better than expected by chance. When predicting depression onset in the high-risk group, brain features from resting-state functional connectomes showed the best classification performance, outperforming other brain features based on structural MRI and task-based fMRI. Results demonstrate that the functional connectivity of the brain can predict the risk of depression in early adolescence better than other univariate neuroimaging derivatives, highlighting the key role of the interacting elements of the connectome capturing more individual variability in psychopathology compared to measures of single brain regions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".