Development of an ice-jam flood forecasting modelling framework for freeze-up/winter breakup
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract River ice-jams can create severe flooding along many rivers in cold regions. While ice-jams often form during the spring breakup, the mid-winter breakup can cause ice-jamming and flooding. Although many studies have already been focused on forecasting spring ice-jam flooding, studies related to forecasting mid-winter breakup jamming and flooding severity are sparse. The main purpose of this research is to develop a stochastic framework to forecast the severity of mid-winter ice-jam flooding along the transborder (New Brunswick/Maine) Saint John River of North America. A combination of hydrological (MESH) and hydraulic model (RIVICE) simulations was applied to develop the stochastic framework. A mid-winter breakup along the river that occurred in 2018 has been hindcasted as a case study. The result shows that the modelling framework can capture the real-time ice-jam severity. The results of this research will help to improve the capacity of ice-jam flood management in cold regions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it