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Record W4365504410 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2748745/v1

Quantifying heat exposure reduction from adaptation and mitigation in 21st century US cities

2023· preprint· en· W4365504410 on OpenAlexaff
Matei Georgescu, Ashley M. Broadbent, E. Scott Krayenhoff

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2023
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicUrban Heat Island Mitigation
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Guelph
FundersBiodesign Institute, Arizona State UniversityArizona State UniversityNational Science Foundation
KeywordsAdaptation (eye)Environmental scienceExtreme heatGreenhouse gasPopulationClimate extremesClimatologyHeat waveDuration (music)Urban heat islandUrban climateClimate changeGeographyEnvironmental resource managementUrban planningNatural resource economicsEnvironmental planningEnvironmental protectionMeteorologyEcologyEconomicsDemography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The continued increase in the duration, frequency, and intensity of heat waves is especially problematic in cities, where more than half of the world’s population lives. We combine decadal scale regional climate modeling simulations with projections of urban expansion, emissions of greenhouse gases and population migration to examine the extent to which adaptation and mitigation strategies, in isolation and in tandem, can reduce population heat exposure across end-of-century US cities. We show that some cities respond more favorably to adaptation while others respond more favorably to mitigation. Our results indicate that the reduction in the number of extreme heat hours due to adaptation and mitigation varies during the daytime portion of the diurnal cycle but is largely independent of the hour of the day during nighttime. We emphasize the importance of adaptation and mitigation strategies through examination of their synergistic interaction to inform development of climate resilient urban development pathways.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.047
Threshold uncertainty score0.093

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0010.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.119
GPT teacher head0.344
Teacher spread0.225 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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