Ensemble species distribution modeling of<i>Culex tarsalis</i>(Diptera: Culicidae) in the continental United States
Bibliographic record
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is the primary mosquito-borne disease in the United States and has had case reports every year since its introduction in 1999. As such, it is critical that we characterize the distribution of WNV vectors. Estimates of Culex tarsalis Coquillett species distribution, a major WNV vector, are scarce. We used ensemble distribution modeling to estimate habitat suitability for this species across the contiguous United States by consolidating presence data from four publicly available mosquito trapping data servers. The central plains region and much of the western US were estimated to have high habitat suitability. We identified multiple metrics of temperature and precipitation to be important in predicting the occurrence of Cx. tarsalis in a given geographic area. Furthermore, we observed habitat suitability for Cx. tarsalis to be significantly higher in areas with a high incidence of West Nile neuroinvasive disease compared to areas with low WN disease incidence, suggesting that Cx. tarsalis is present in regions with a high incidence of disease.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".