Regional Precipitation Sensitivity is Sensitive to Changes in Cross-Equatorial Ocean Heat Transport
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) with greenhouse gas forcing is a common feature in most Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we show that uncertainty in regional precipitation projections in CMIP6-class ESMs, particularly over the deep tropics, is linked to uncertainty in how much the AMOC weakens. Specifically, ESMs with greater AMOC weakening exhibit less strengthening (or greater weakening) of monsoonal circulations north of the equator, consistent with a pronounced southward shift in the tropical precipitation maximum. Using an idealized ESM, we show that decreasing the (northward) cross-equatorial ocean heat transport (X-OHT) while doubling CO2 is sufficient to shift the tropical precipitation maximum southward and thereby weaken northern hemispheric monsoon circulations, relative to an experiment where X-OHT remains unchanged. These findings imply that uncertainty in precipitation projections over key regions, particularly in the tropics, may be reduced by better constraining changes in large-scale ocean dynamics with warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".