Mixed reactions of Africa regional stock markets to COVID-19 pandemic: events study analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
COVID-19 has caused severe disruptions in global economic activities, and its impacts on stock markets cannot be overemphasized. The study employs market model and event study approach with four events (WHO announcement of COVID-19 as a global health emergency, confirmed infections, confirmed deaths, and vaccination) to examine the reactions of four African regional blocs’ markets to the pandemic from September 1, 2019, to August 31, 2021, to estimate the average abnormal returns of each regional bloc. On the day of the WHO announcement, we document insignificant negative average abnormal returns in the Northern bloc. We also document significant negative average abnormal returns for infections in all but the Northern bloc on the event day. The Western bloc generated the highest significant negative average abnormal return (-43 per cent) on the day COVID-19 death was confirmed on the continent. We finally document insignificant average abnormal returns from weeks 1 to 20 after the first vaccination in the Northern and Eastern blocs. The study recommends that investors, portfolio managers, and speculators not panic during similar pandemics since they can generate significant abnormal returns and diversify their investment holdings across the four regional blocs in Africa, as demonstrated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".