Validation of a Case Definition to Identify Patients Diagnosed With Cardiovascular Disease in Canadian Primary Care Practices
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death globally. This study validates a primary care-based electronic medical record case definition for CVD. Methods This retrospective, cross-sectional study explores electronic medical record data from 1574 primary care providers participating in the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network. A reference standard was created by reviewing medical records of a subset of patients in this network (n = 2017) for coronary artery disease (CAD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), and peripheral vascular disease (PVD). Together, these data produced a CVD reference. We applied validated case definitions to an active patient population (≥ 1 visit between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2019) to estimate prevalence using the exact binomial test (N = 689,301). Descriptive statistics, χ 2 tests, and t tests characterized patients with vs without CVD. Results The optimal CVD Case Definition 2 had a sensitivity of 68.5% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 61.6%-74.8%), a specificity of 97.8% (95% CI: 97.0%-98.4%), a positive predictive value of 77.7% (95% CI: 71.6%-82.7%), and a negative predictive value of 96.5% (95% CI: 95.8%-97.1%). Included in this CVD definition was a strong CAD case definition with sensitivity of 91.6% (95% CI: 84.6%-96.1%), specificity of 98.3% (95% CI: 97.6%-98.8%), a PPV of 74.8% (95% CI: 67.8%-80.7%), and an NPV of 99.5% (95% CI: 99.1%-99.7%). This CVD definition also included CeVD and PVD case definitions with low sensitivity (77.6% and 36.6%) but high specificity (98.6% and 99.0%). The estimated prevalence of CVD among primary care patients is 11.2% (95% CI, 11.1%-11.3%; n = 77,064); the majority had CAD (6.4%). Conclusions This study validated a definition of CVD and its component parts—CAD, CeVD, and PVD. Understanding the prevalence and disease burden for patients with CVD within primary care settings can improve prevention and disease management.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.027 | 0.093 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".