Identifying Relapse Predictors in Individual Participant Data with Decision Trees
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Depression is a highly common and recurrent condition. Predicting who is at most risk of relapse or recurrence can inform clinical practice. Applying machine learning methods to Individual Participant Data (IPD) can be promising to improve the accuracy of risk predictions. Methods: Individual data of four Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) evaluating an- tidepressant treatment compared to psychological interventions with tapering (N = 714) were used to identify predictors of relapse and/or recurrence. Ten baseline predictors were assessed. Decision trees with and without gradient boosting were applied. To study the robust- ness of decision-tree classifications, we also performed a complementary logistic regression analysis. Results: Age, age of onset of depression and depression severity combined significantly improve relapse risk prediction compared to classifiers that are only based on depression severity. The studied decision tree relapse classifiers can (i) identify relapse patients at intake with an accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of about 58% and (ii) outperform classifiers that are based on logistic regression. Conclusions: Decision tree classifiers based on multiple–rather than single–risk indicators are useful for developing treatment stratification strategies. These classification models can be used to help prioritize treatment to those who need it most.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.055 | 0.089 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".