Predicting changes in neutralizing antibody activity for SARS-CoV-2 XBB.1.5 using in silico protein modeling
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 variant XBB.1.5 is of concern as it has high transmissibility. XBB.1.5 currently accounts for upwards of 30% of new infections in the United States. One year after our group published the predicted structure of the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant’s receptor binding domain (RBD) and antibody binding affinity, we return to investigate the new mutations seen in XBB.1.5 which is a descendant of Omicron. Using in silico modeling approaches against newer neutralizing antibodies that are shown effective against B.1.1.529, we predict the immune consequences of XBB.1.5’s mutations and show that there is no statistically significant difference in overall antibody evasion when comparing to the B.1.1.529 and other related variants (e.g., BJ.1 andBM.1.1.1). However, noticeable changes in antibody binding affinity were seen due to specific amino acid changes of interest in the newer variants.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it