Long-term, not short-term, temperatures predict timing of egg laying in European Starling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Temperature, particularly within ~1 month of egg laying, is thought to be an important, short-term cue used by female birds to calibrate timing of breeding to local conditions. Here, we show that a relatively broad, long-term, temperature window (January 2 to April 4, 92 days; r2 = 0.73) best predicted timing of egg laying in European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). A “mid-winter” temperature window was also strongly correlated with laying date (r2 = 0.58), but we found no support for an influence of short-term temperatures immediately before egg laying. We assessed the relationship between ambient temperature and timing of egg laying using three complimentary approaches: (1) an “unconstrained,” exploratory analysis; (2) a traditional sliding window approach; and (3) specific, biologically informed temperature windows. Our results contrast with the widely held view that short-term, prebreeding temperatures best predict variation in laying because they allow birds to adjust timing of breeding to local conditions around the time of egg laying. This means that mechanisms that allow integration of long-term temperature information must exist in birds—perhaps most parsimoniously involving indirect effects of temperature on growth of the bird’s ectothermic insect prey—even though these are currently poorly characterized.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".