Validation of TOI-1221 b: A Warm Sub-Neptune Exhibiting Transit Timing Variations around a Sun-like Star
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We present a validation of a long-period ( 91.68278 − 0.00041 + 0.00032 days) transiting sub-Neptune planet, TOI-1221 b (TIC 349095149.01), around a Sun-like (m V = 10.5) star. This is one of the few known exoplanets with a period >50 days, and belongs to the even smaller subset of which have bright enough hosts for detailed spectroscopic follow-up. We combine Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite light curves and ground-based time-series photometry from the Perth Exoplanet Survey Telescope (0.3 m) and Las Cumbres Observatory global telescope network (1.0 m) to analyze the transit signals and rule out nearby stars as potential false-positive sources. High-contrast imaging from the Southern Astrophysical Research Telescope and Gemini/Zorro rule out nearby stellar contaminants. Reconnaissance spectroscopy from CHIRON sets a planetary scale upper mass limit on the transiting object (1.1 and 3.5 M Jup at 1σ and 3σ, respectively) and shows no sign of a spectroscopic binary companion. We determine a planetary radius of R p = 2.91 − 0.12 + 0.13 R ⊕ , placing it in the sub-Neptune regime. With a stellar insolation of S = 6.06 − 0.77 + 0.85 S ⊕ , we calculate a moderate equilibrium temperature of T eq = 440 K, assuming no albedo and perfect heat redistribution. We find a false-positive probability from the TRICERATOPS tool of FPP = 0.0014 ± 0.0003 as well as other qualitative and quantitative evidence to support the statistical validation of TOI-1221 b. We find significant evidence (>5σ) of oscillatory transit timing variations, likely indicative of an additional nontransiting planet.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".