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Record W4367299596 · doi:10.1080/24754269.2023.2201108

Evaluation of the Canadian government policies on controlling the COVID-19 outbreaks

2023· article· en· W4367299596 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.
aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.

Bibliographic record

VenueStatistical Theory and Related Fields · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicCOVID-19 epidemiological studies
Canadian institutionsYork University
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaNational Natural Science Foundation of China
KeywordsCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)PandemicOutbreakGovernment (linguistics)Kalman filterPhase (matter)GeographyEconometricsEconomicsStatisticsVirologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)MathematicsBiologyMedicine

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

In this paper, we investigate the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada and evaluate the Canadian government policies on controlling COVID-19 outbreaks. The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Ontario on 25 January 2020. Since then, there have been over million cases by now. During this time period, the federal, provincial and local governments have implemented regulations and policies in order to control the pandemic. To evaluate these government policies, which may be done by analysing the infection rate, infection period and reproductive number of COVID-19, we approach the problem by introducing an extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model and conduct the model inference by using the iterated filter ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (IF-EAKF) algorithm. We first divide the time period into phases according to the policy intensities in each province by segmenting the time period from 4 March 2020 to 31 October 2020 into three time phases: the exploding phase, the strict policy implementation phase, and the provincial reopening phase. We then use IF-EAKF algorithm to obtain the estimates of the model parameters. We show that the infection rate in the second phase is lower than that in both first and third phases. We also discuss the number of new COVID-19 cases under different policy intensities and different policy durations in the third wave of the pandemic.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.008
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.056
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.574
Threshold uncertainty score0.952

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0080.056
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.194
GPT teacher head0.430
Teacher spread0.236 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it