Laboratory earthquakes decipher control and stability of rupture speeds
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Earthquakes are destructive natural hazards with damage capacity dictated by rupture speeds. Traditional dynamic rupture models predict that earthquake ruptures gradually accelerate to the Rayleigh wave speed with some of them further jumping to stable supershear speeds above the Eshelby speed (~ $$\sqrt{2}$$ 2 times S wave speed). However, the 2018 M w 7.5 Palu earthquake, among several others, significantly challenges such a viewpoint. Here we generate spontaneous shear ruptures on laboratory faults to confirm that ruptures can indeed attain steady subRayleigh or supershear propagation speeds immediately following nucleation. A self-similar analysis of dynamic rupture confirms our observation, leading to a simple model where the rupture speed is uniquely dependent on a driving load. Our results reproduce and explain a number of enigmatic field observations on earthquake speeds, including the existence of stable subEshelby supershear ruptures, early onset of supershear ruptures, and the correlation between the rupture speed and the driving load.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".