Damage factors of stratospheric ozone depletion on human health impact with the addition of nitrous oxide as the largest contributor in the 2000s
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Purpose Stratospheric ozone (O 3 ) depletion caused by O 3 -depleting substances (ODSs) remains an unsolved issue. The leakage of older ODSs in the atmosphere continue to affect stratospheric O 3 , and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) remains the largest contributor to stratospheric O 3 depletion. The purpose of this study was to update the damage factors of stratospheric O 3 depletion on human health impacts, particularly skin cancers and eye cataracts, for the years 2010 and 2015 by adding N 2 O. Methods The framework to derive damage factors followed that of our previous study; the marginal increase in total incidence per unit ODS emission was estimated using the following terms: ground surface emission, tropospheric chlorine loading, equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), total O 3 in the air column, ultraviolet-B (UV-B) at the ground surface, incidence due to erythemal UV-B exposure, standardized age structure, population, and ODS atmospheric lifetime. By multiplying the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per incidence by the marginal increase in total incidence per unit emission, the damage factor was obtained as the DALY per unit emission. The following update was made in this study: the addition of N 2 O and revisions of the relationship between EESC and total O 3 , ODS lifetime, population, and DALY per incidence. Results and discussion Damage factors of all ODSs regulated by the Montreal Protocol and of N 2 O were calculated for melanoma, non-melanoma skin cancers, and eye cataracts. The total damage factors of N 2 O were 2.1 × 10 –5 and 2.2 × 10 –5 DALY per kg nitrogen (N) in 2010 and 2015, respectively. These values were smaller than those of chlorofluorocarbons and halons; however, the global effect of N 2 O on stratospheric O 3 depletion was approximately 170,000 DALYs or 3.9 billion USD in 2010, accounting for 48% of the total damage. The damage factor of N 2 O on climate change was estimated, based on existing literature, to be 27 times higher than that for stratospheric O 3 depletion estimated in this study. Conclusions N 2 O is currently the largest contributor to stratospheric O 3 depletion, which accounted for approximately 50% of the total health impact induced by all ODSs in 2010. Although another important impact of N 2 O, i.e., climate change, was demonstrated to be 27 times more damaging than stratospheric O 3 depletion, this means that N 2 O emissions contribute to two global environmental issues simultaneously. Thus, efforts to reduce N 2 O emissions should be increased.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it