Mumps resurgence in a highly vaccinated population: Insights gained from surveillance in Canada, 2002–2020
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although mumps vaccination has been routine in Canada for decades, mumps cases and outbreaks continue to occur periodically. Mumps surveillance, including monitoring of the mumps virus genotype associated with disease activity, is important to document baseline activity and to advance further research into vaccine effectiveness. Here we describe a detailed analysis of mumps cases that have been detected in Canada from 2002 to 2020, with a focus on the mumps molecular epidemiology. In total, 7395 cases of mumps were reported to the surveillance system, with outbreaks occurring in the years 2007, 2010 and 2016 to 2018. Adolescents and young adults aged 15 to 29 years had the highest risk of being a case (rate ratios ranging from 1.50 to 2.29), compared to adults aged 30 to 39. Genotypes of mumps viruses were determined in 3225 specimens. Genotype G was predominantly detected (96% of genotyped specimens) and was first reported in 2005. Other genotypes were more likely to be detected in cases that also reported travel (or were linked to imported cases) than the cases with genotype G detected (p < 0.0001). The genotype G viruses had little sequence diversity in the 316 nucleotide window used for genotyping (the small hydrophobic protein gene) and mainly belonged to a single phylogenetic lineage that included the MuVi/Sheffield.GBR/1.05 reference sequence. The analysis of over ten years of data has demonstrated that mumps genotype G, specifically belonging to a single lineage, the Sheffield lineage, is the endemically circulating virus in Canada. This lineage is seen also in other countries using the genotype A vaccine. Mumps remains endemic despite high MMR vaccination coverage which has been sufficient to eliminate circulation of measles and rubella in Canada, raising the hypothesis of the evolution towards a vaccine escape mumps virus.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".