Temporal trends in the accumulation of alien vascular plant species through intentional and unintentional introductions in Japan
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Clarifying the temporal trends of alien plant accumulation is increasingly important for informing global and national management efforts to decelerate biological invasions, following the adoption of Target 6 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. However, such trends have not yet been analysed in many countries including Japan, which has the highest number of naturalised alien plant species among islands. To clarify the past and recent trends in the accumulation of alien plant species in Japan, we compiled a dataset of the year of first record for 1,463 alien vascular plant species deliberately and accidentally introduced and analysed the changes in the annual number of first records over time for each overall, intentional and unintentional introductions. We found that, overall, the annual number of first records of alien plant species in Japan began to increase in the late 1800s, and the increase continued until the late 1950s, with an estimated maximum of 15.7 new species per year. The increase then halted by 1960 and began a slow decline; the estimated average records per year between 1991 and 2000 dropped to 13.3 species. Since 1900, the annual number of first records associated with intentional introductions has more than doubled the number linked to unintentional introductions. Additionally, the proportion of invasive species brought through intentional introductions was larger than that brought through unintentional introductions. We highlight that while Japan experienced a rapid accumulation of alien plant species, including invasive species, by the 1950s, the rate of accumulation showed signs of saturation by 1960 and has since been slowly declining. Further deceleration and prevention of the introduction of invasive alien species, as targeted in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, may be achieved through increased investment in pathway management, especially management of intentional pathways.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it