Bayesian inference for optimal dynamic treatment regimes in practice
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this work, we examine recently developed methods for Bayesian inference of optimal dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs). DTRs are a set of treatment decision rules aimed at tailoring patient care to patient-specific characteristics, thereby falling within the realm of precision medicine. In this field, researchers seek to tailor therapy with the intention of improving health outcomes; therefore, they are most interested in identifying optimal DTRs. Recent work has developed Bayesian methods for identifying optimal DTRs in a family indexed by ψ via Bayesian dynamic marginal structural models (MSMs) (Rodriguez Duque D, Stephens DA, Moodie EEM, Klein MB. Semiparametric Bayesian inference for dynamic treatment regimes via dynamic regime marginal structural models. Biostatistics; 2022. (In Press)); we review the proposed estimation procedure and illustrate its use via the new BayesDTR R package. Although methods in Rodriguez Duque D, Stephens DA, Moodie EEM, Klein MB. (Semiparametric Bayesian inference for dynamic treatment regimes via dynamic regime marginal structural models. Biostatistics; 2022. (In Press)) can estimate optimal DTRs well, they may lead to biased estimators when the model for the expected outcome if everyone in a population were to follow a given treatment strategy, known as a value function, is misspecified or when a grid search for the optimum is employed. We describe recent work that uses a Gaussian process <m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <m:mrow> <m:mo stretchy="false">(</m:mo> <m:mrow> <m:mi mathvariant="script">G</m:mi> <m:mi mathvariant="script">P</m:mi> </m:mrow> <m:mo stretchy="false">)</m:mo> </m:mrow> </m:math> $(\mathcal{G}\mathcal{P})$ prior on the value function as a means to robustly identify optimal DTRs (Rodriguez Duque D, Stephens DA, Moodie EEM. Estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes using Gaussian processes; 2022. Available from: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2105.12259 ). We demonstrate how a <m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <m:mi mathvariant="script">G</m:mi> <m:mi mathvariant="script">P</m:mi> </m:math> $\mathcal{G}\mathcal{P}$ approach may be implemented with the BayesDTR package and contrast it with other value-search approaches to identifying optimal DTRs. We use data from an HIV therapeutic trial in order to illustrate a standard analysis with these methods, using both the original observed trial data and an additional simulated component to showcase a longitudinal (two-stage DTR) analysis.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".