Clinical correlates of diagnostic certainty in children with autism
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Clinicians diagnosing autism rely on diagnostic instruments and criteria in combination with an implicit knowledge of the specific signs and presentations associated with the condition, based on clinical expertise. This implicit knowledge influences how diagnostic criteria are interpreted but cannot be directly observed. Instead, insight into clinicians’ understanding of autism can be gained by investigating their diagnostic certainty. Modest correlations between the certainty of an autism diagnosis and symptom load have been previously reported. Here, we investigated the associations of diagnostic certainty with specific items of the ADOS as well as other clinical features including head circumference. Methods Phenotypic data from the Simons Simplex Collection was used to investigate clinical correlates of diagnostic certainty in individuals with autism. Participants were stratified by the ADOS module used to evaluate them. We investigated how diagnostic certainty was associated with total ADOS scores, age, and ADOS module. We calculated the odds-ratios of being diagnosed with the highest possible certainty given the presence or absence of different signs during the ADOS evaluation. Associations between diagnostic certainty and other cognitive and clinical variables were also assessed. Results Some ADOS items showed a larger association with diagnostic certainty than others. Head circumference was significantly higher for individuals with the highest certainty rating across all three ADOS modules. In turn, head circumference was positively correlated with some of those ADOS items that were associated with diagnostic certainty, particularly in ADOS module 2. Limitations: The investigated cohort was heterogeneous, possibly impeding the identification of associations that only exist in a subgroup of the population. The scoring of diagnostic certainty may vary between clinicians. Conclusion Some ADOS items may better capture the signs that are most associated with clinicians’ implicit knowledge of autism. If replicated in future studies, new diagnostic instruments with differentiated weighting of signs may be needed to better reflect this, possibly resulting in better specificity in standardized assessments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".