Autumn canopy senescence has slowed down with global warming since the 1980s in the Northern Hemisphere
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Climate change strongly impact vegetation phenology, with considerable potential to alter land-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange and terrestrial carbon cycle. In contrast to well-studied spring leaf-out, the timing and magnitude of autumn senescence remains poorly understood. Here, we use monthly decreases in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index satellite retrievals and their trends to surrogate the speed of autumn senescence during 1982–2018 in the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N). We find that climate warming accelerated senescence in July, but this influence usually reversed in later summer and early autumn. Interestingly, summer greening causes canopy senescence to appear later compared to an advancing trend after eliminating the greening effect. This finding suggests that summer canopy greening may counteract the intrinsic changes in autumnal leaf senescence. Our analysis of autumn vegetation behavior provides reliable guidance for developing and parameterizing land surface models that contain an interactive dynamic vegetation module for placement in coupled Earth System Models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".