Development and validation of a prognostic 15-gene signature for stratifying HER2+/ER+ breast cancer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Human epidermal growth receptor 2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer (BC) is a heterogeneous subgroup. Estrogen receptor (ER) status is emerging as a predictive marker within HER2+ BCs, with the HER2+/ER+ cases usually having better survival in the first 5 years after diagnosis but have higher recurrence risk after 5 years compared to HER2+/ER-. This is possibly because sustained ER signaling in HER2+ BCs helps escape the HER2 blockade. Currently HER2+/ER+ BC is understudied and lacks biomarkers. Thus, a better understanding of the underlying molecular diversity is important to find new therapy targets for HER2+/ER+ BCs. Methods: In this study, we performed unsupervised consensus clustering together with genome-wide Cox regression analyses on the gene expression data of 123 HER2+/ER+ BC from The Cancer Genome Atlas Breast Invasive Carcinoma (TCGA-BRCA) cohort to identify distinct HER2+/ER+ subgroups. A supervised eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) classifier was then built in TCGA using the identified subgroups and validated in another two independent datasets (Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) (accession number GSE149283)). Computational characterization analyses were also performed on the predicted subgroups in different HER2+/ER+ BC cohorts. Results: We identified two distinct HER2+/ER+ subgroups with different survival outcomes using the expression profiles of 549 survival-associated genes from the Cox regression analyses. Genome-wide gene expression differential analyses found 197 differentially expressed genes between the two identified subgroups, with 15 genes overlapping the 549 survival-associated genes.XGBoost classifier, using the expression values of the 15 genes, achieved a strong cross-validated performance (Area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85, Sensitivity = 0.76, specificity = 0.77) in predicting the subgroup labels. Further investigation partially confirmed the differences in survival, drug response, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, published gene signatures, and CRISPR-Cas9 knockout screened gene dependency scores between the two identified subgroups. Conclusion: This is the first study to stratify HER2+/ER+ tumors. Overall, the initial results from different cohorts showed there exist two distinct subgroups in HER2+/ER+ tumors, which can be distinguished by a 15-gene signature. Our findings could potentially guide the development of future precision therapies targeted on HER2+/ER+ BC.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".