Hastening the inevitable: American intervention in the Canadian elections of 1962–1963
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In recent years, there has been much research on foreign electoral intervention (FEI). However, it is an open question as to whether successful interventions “work” for the intervener. Does the newly elected government adopt the policies that motivated the intervener to intervene in the first place? This paper makes a first step toward addressing that question. It argues that FEIs work when the elected government can overcome veto players in legislatures, be they parliaments, national assemblies, or congresses. For minority governments or cohabitational presidencies, overcoming these veto players is no easy task and may necessitate further interventions by the intervening power. American interventions in the Canadian elections of 1962 and 1963 serve as an illustrative case. The findings suggest that governments with large majorities or control over congressional/legislative branches are more likely to cooperate with intervening governments. These findings have implications for how we assess the vulnerability of democracies to FEI.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.022 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".