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Record W4377971359 · doi:10.1109/tits.2023.3276947

MetaProbformer for Charging Load Probabilistic Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations

2023· article· en· W4377971359 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenueIEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicElectric Vehicles and Infrastructure
Canadian institutionsMcGill University
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsProbabilistic logicProbabilistic forecastingLeverage (statistics)Computer scienceElectric vehicleTransformerCharging stationElectric power systemAutomotive engineeringReliability engineeringEngineeringVoltageArtificial intelligencePower (physics)Electrical engineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The penetration of electric vehicles (EV) has been increasing rapidly in recent years. Electric vehicle charging load poses a huge demand on the power grids. The forecasting for electric vehicle charging load, especially for the charging load of EV charging stations, is of significant importance for the safe operation of power grids. However, most of the existing forecasting methods fail to capture the long-term dependencies efficiently and assume the availability of a large amount of training data. Hence, they cannot address newly built charging stations with scarce historical charging load data. Meanwhile, most of the methods focus on point forecasting, which lacks risk consideration. In this work, we aim to leverage the benefits of Transformer-based models for EV charging forecasting. Specifically, we propos Probformer, a Transformer-based forecasting model for charging load forecasting. To enable Probformer to adapt fast to unseen environments, we further extend it to MetaProbformer, a meta-learning-based forecasting framework. Extensive experiments have been done on real-world datasets for both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting. Experimental results show that our methods can consistently outperform baseline methods by a large margin.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.714
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.030
GPT teacher head0.240
Teacher spread0.210 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it