The Relationship of Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycle: Is Vietnam Different?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fiscal policy is one of the most crucial areas of government economic policy, and it has the potential to influence the economic growth of any nation. According to traditional Keynesian and Ricardian theories, fiscal policy should not be pro-cyclical, and counter-cyclical fiscal policy is the most effective alternative. Furthermore, the periodicity of fiscal policy is also heavily influenced by the quality of political institutions and democracies. Thus, this paper examines the relationship between fiscal policy and economic cycle in Vietnam, a developing economy with dramatic change since 2000. The results support the causal relationship between the set of fiscal policy factors, such as public debt, government tax revenues, and government expenditures, by analyzing quarterly data over a twenty-year period beginning in 2000 by using the Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). Therefore, the adaptation of fiscal policy to the phases of the economic cycle and the effective deployment of fiscal policy tools help the sustainability of public finances and stimulate economic growth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".