Improved Data-Driven Building Daily Energy Consumption Prediction Models Based on Balance Point Temperature
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The data-driven models have been widely used in building energy analysis due to their outstanding performance. The input variables of the data-driven models are crucial for their predictive performance. Therefore, it is meaningful to explore the input variables that can improve the predictive performance, especially in the context of the global energy crisis. In this study, an algorithm for calculating the balance point temperature was proposed for an apartment community in Xiamen, China. It was found that the balance point temperature label (BPT label) can significantly improve the daily energy consumption prediction accuracy of five data-driven models (BPNN, SVR, RF, LASSO, and KNN). Feature importance analysis showed that the importance of the BPT label accounts for 25%. Among all input variables, the daily minimum temperature is the decisive factor that affects energy consumption, while the daily maximum temperature has little impact. In addition, this study also provides recommendations for selecting these model tools under different data conditions: when the input variable data is insufficient, KNN has the best predictive performance, while BPNN is the best model when the input data is sufficient.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".