Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies in serum samples collected in England in 2006, 2011, and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, we estimate an approximately 50% increase in the annual probability of infection over the 10-year study period, coinciding with the emergence of clade B around 2009. Despite such increase in transmission, seroprevalence data suggest that the virus was already widely circulating before the AFM outbreaks and the increase of infections by age cannot explain the observed number of AFM cases. Therefore, the acquisition of or an increase in neuropathogenicity would be additionally required to explain the emergence of outbreaks of AFM. Our results provide evidence that changes in enterovirus phenotypes cause major changes in disease epidemiology.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".