A Pandemic-Scale Ancestral Recombination Graph for SARS-CoV-2
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Millions of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences were collected during the COVID-19 pandemic, forming a dataset of unprecedented richness. Estimated genealogies are fundamental to understanding this ocean of data and form the primary input to many downstream analyses. A basic assumption of methods to infer genealogies from viral genetic data is that recombination is negligible and the genealogy is a tree. However, recombinant lineages have risen to global prevalence, and simple tree representations are therefore incomplete and potentially misleading. We present sc2ts, a method to infer reticulate genealogies as an Ancestral Recombination Graph (ARG) in real time at pandemic scale. We infer an ARG for 2.48 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes, which leverages the widely used tskit software ecosystem to support further analyses and visualisation. This rich and validated resource clarifies the relationships among recombinant lineages, quantifies the rate of recombination over time, and provides a lower bound on detectable recombination.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".