Macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in SSA countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper studies the effects of fiscal measures in 40 sub-Saharan countries on economic output, unemployment, consumption, private investment, REER, and current account balance. The study estimates impulse response functions with local projections, based on a yearly dataset covering 40 countries over 2000–2019. The key variable in the dataset is a measure of fiscal stance computed following Blanchard (1993), with a threshold of 1.5%. The study finds that in the short run, fiscal consolidation reduces real GDP and private demand. In addition, the current account balance responds positively to a shock in fiscal consolidation, whereas the real effective exchange rate responds negatively. Moreover, compared with revenue-based consolidations, spending-based consolidations lead to smaller losses in output. Our finding also reveals that fiscal consolidations also depend on economic cycles, with a lower output loss during an economic boom. Finally, this study suggests that fiscal consolidations should be carried out based on spending-based consolidations and have to be preceded by an economic boom.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".