Macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in SSA countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper studies the effects of fiscal measures in 40 sub-Saharan countries on economic output, unemployment, consumption, private investment, REER, and current account balance. The study estimates impulse response functions with local projections, based on a yearly dataset covering 40 countries over 2000–2019. The key variable in the dataset is a measure of fiscal stance computed following Blanchard (1993), with a threshold of 1.5%. The study finds that in the short run, fiscal consolidation reduces real GDP and private demand. In addition, the current account balance responds positively to a shock in fiscal consolidation, whereas the real effective exchange rate responds negatively. Moreover, compared with revenue-based consolidations, spending-based consolidations lead to smaller losses in output. Our finding also reveals that fiscal consolidations also depend on economic cycles, with a lower output loss during an economic boom. Finally, this study suggests that fiscal consolidations should be carried out based on spending-based consolidations and have to be preceded by an economic boom.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".