Random matrix theory tools for the predictive analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging examinations
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose: Random matrix theory (RMT) is an increasingly useful tool for understanding large, complex systems. Prior studies have examined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans using tools from RMT, with some success. However, RMT computations are highly sensitive to a number of analytic choices, and the robustness of findings involving RMT remains in question. We systematically investigate the usefulness of RMT on a wide variety of fMRI datasets using a rigorous predictive framework. Approach: We develop open-source software to efficiently compute RMT features from fMRI images and examine the cross-validated predictive potential of eigenvalue and RMT-based features ("eigenfeatures") with classic machine-learning classifiers. We systematically vary pre-processing extent, normalization procedures, RMT unfolding procedures, and feature selection and compare the impact of these analytic choices on the distributions of cross-validated prediction performance for each combination of dataset binary classification task, classifier, and feature. To deal with class imbalance, we use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) as the main performance metric. Results: , median AUROC range across classification tasks 0.42 to 0.62). Additionally, eigenfeature AUROC distributions were overall more right-tailed than baseline features, suggesting greater predictive potential. However, performance distributions were wide and often significantly affected by analytic choices. Conclusions: Eigenfeatures clearly have potential for understanding fMRI functional connectivity in a wide variety of scenarios. The utility of these features is strongly dependent on analytic decisions, suggesting caution when interpreting past and future studies applying RMT to fMRI. However, our study demonstrates that the inclusion of RMT statistics in fMRI investigations could improve prediction performances across a wide variety of phenomena.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.083 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it