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Mathematical Modeling of Post-Exposure Prophylaxis of SARS-CoV-2\r

2023· article· en· W4380628654 on OpenAlexaff
M.A. Preston

Bibliographic record

VenueArsenal Augusta University’s Undergraduate Research Journal · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicCOVID-19 epidemiological studies
Canadian institutionsToronto Metropolitan University
FundersAugusta University
KeywordsBasic reproduction numberPopulationSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Transmission (telecommunications)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)VirusMedicineReproductionBiologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)DiseaseVirologyInternal medicineEnvironmental healthEcologyComputer science

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in December 2019, and as of August 29, 2022, this virus was responsible for about 6 million confirmed deaths and about 450 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally.In this project, we used mathematical modeling to investigate the impact of post-exposure prophylaxis in preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2.The disease-free equilibrium of our model is derived, and the basic reproduction number is computed, using the next generation matrix approach.We studied the elasticity indices of the reproduction number with respect to each parameter and identified parameters that are most sensitive in increasing the reproduction number and those that are most sensitive in decreasing the reproduction number.Numerical simulations suggest that an increase in the modification parameter for the transmission rate of breakthrough cases results in more infectiousness for those not on prophylaxis when compared to individuals on prophylaxis.The outcomes of our contour plot suggest the possibility of eradicating the virus from the population under different combinations of the proportion of individuals who recently came in contact with an infectious individual and have been administered an antiviral drug such as REGEN-CoV.Results of numerical simulations and contour plots highlight the importance of post-exposure prophylaxis on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the population.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.008
Threshold uncertainty score0.015

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.368
GPT teacher head0.446
Teacher spread0.077 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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