Abstract 10951: Temporal and Global Trends of the Incidence of Sudden Cardiac Death in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: A Meta-Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: Since hypertrophic cardiomyopathy(HCM) initial description, sudden cardiac death (SCD) has been the most feared complication of HCM. Hypothesis: Temporal, geographical, and age-related trends of SCD rates in HCM have drastically decreased over time. Methods: Databases were systematically searched to Nov 2021 for studies reporting on SCD event rates in HCM. Patients with SCD equivalents (appropriate ICD shocks and non-fatal SCD) were excluded. Random-effects model was utilized to pool study estimates calculating the overall incidence rates(IR) for each time-era, geographical region, and age-group. We analyzed 2 eras (before vs. after 2000, following implementation of ICD in HCM). Following 2000, 5-year intervals were used to reflect the temporal change in SCD. Results: 98 studies (N=70,510patients and 431,407patient-years) met inclusion criteria. Overall rate of HCM SCD was 0.43%/year (95% CI: 0.37-0.50%; I 2 =75%; SCD events:1,938; person-years of follow-up: 408,715), with young patients(<18 years) demonstrating a>2-fold-risk for SCD vs. adults(18-60years) (IR:1.09%; 95% CI: 0.69-1.73% vs. IR: 0.43%; 95% CI: 0.37-0.50%)(P-value for subgroup differences:<0.01). Contemporary SCD rates from 2015-present were 0.32%/year; significantly lower compared to 2000 or earlier (IR: 0.32%; 95% CI:0.20-0.52%, vs. IR: 0.73%; 95% CI:0.53-1.02%,respectively). Reported HCM-SCD rates were lowest in North America (IR: 0.28%;95% CI:0.18-0.43%) and highest in Asia(IR: 0.67%; 95% CI:0.54-0.84%). Conclusions: Contemporary HCM-related SCD are low (0.32%/year) representing a 2-fold decrease compared to prior treatment eras, with young HCM patients at the highest risk. SCD risk stratification maturation and primary prevention ICD application are likely responsible for the notable decline in SCD trends. Moreover, worldwide geographical disparities in SCD was evident, underscoring the need to increase access to SCD prevention for all HCM patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.016 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.012 | 0.053 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".