High interannual surface <i>p</i> CO <sub>2</sub> variability in the southern Canadian Arctic Archipelago's Kitikmeot Sea
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Warming of the Arctic due to climate change means the Arctic Ocean is now free from ice for longer, as sea ice melts earlier and refreezes later. Yet, it remains unclear how this extended ice-free period will impact carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes due to scarcity of surface ocean CO2 measurements. Baseline measurements are urgently needed to understand spatial and temporal air–sea CO2 flux variability in the changing Arctic Ocean. There is also uncertainty as to whether the previous basin-wide surveys are representative of the many smaller bays and inlets that make up the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). By using a research vessel that is based in the remote Inuit community of Ikaluqtuutiak (Cambridge Bay, Nunavut), we have been able to reliably survey pCO2 shortly after ice melt and access previously unsampled bays and inlets in the nearby region. Here we present 4 years of consecutive summertime pCO2 measurements collected in the Kitikmeot Sea in the southern CAA. Overall, we found that this region is a sink for atmospheric CO2 in August (average of all calculated fluxes over the four cruises was −4.64 mmol m−2 d−1), but the magnitude of this sink varies substantially between years and locations (average calculated fluxes of +3.58, −2.96, −16.79 and −0.57 mmol m−2 d−1 during the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 cruises, respectively). Surface ocean pCO2 varied by up to 156 µatm between years, highlighting the importance of repeat observations in this region, as this high interannual variability would not have been captured by sparse and infrequent measurements. We find that the surface ocean pCO2 value at the time of ice melt is extremely important in constraining the magnitude of the air–sea CO2 flux throughout the ice-free season. However, further constraining the air–sea CO2 flux in the Kitikmeot Sea will require a better understanding of how pCO2 changes outside of the summer season. Surface ocean pCO2 measurements made in small bays and inlets of the Kitikmeot Sea were ∼ 20–40 µatm lower than in the main channels. Surface ocean pCO2 measurements made close in time to ice breakup (i.e. within 2 weeks) were ∼ 50 µatm lower than measurements made > 4 weeks after breakup. As previous basin-wide surveys of the CAA have focused on the deep shipping channels and rarely measure close to the ice breakup date, we hypothesize that there may be an observational bias in previous studies, leading to an underestimate of the CO2 sink in the CAA. These high-resolution measurements constitute an important new baseline for gaining a better understanding of the role this region plays in the uptake of atmospheric CO2.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".