Extreme Sea Levels and Their Attribution for the Canadian Pacific Coast From a Baroclinic Regional Ocean Model and Tide‐Gauge Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The existing operational storm surge model for the Canadian Pacific coast is barotropic without coupling with tides. Here a baroclinic ocean model, which includes tides, storm surges, intra‐seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variations, is developed to reproduce coastal sea levels in the northeast Pacific from 1993 to 2020. The model results are validated against observations at tide‐gauge sites, demonstrating overall good skills for tides and non‐tidal sea levels. The Gumbel distribution is applied to derive extreme sea levels from hourly sea level anomalies. The model‐based extreme sea levels agree approximately with the observation‐based ones. For the 100‐year return period, modeled total extreme sea levels range from 2.14 m at Victoria Harbour to 4.43 m at Queen Charlotte City, and modeled non‐tidal extreme sea levels from 1.02 m at Bella Bella to 1.78 m at Queen Charlotte City. On average, the model‐based values underestimate the 100‐year return level by 0.18 m for total extreme sea levels and by 0.23 m for non‐tidal extreme sea levels. Both the model‐ and observation‐based results reveal that the storm surge at periods less than 10 d accounts for 60% of the 100‐year non‐tidal extreme sea level, and the intra‐seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variations account for 40% of it. The present study improves coastal sea level modeling and model‐based extreme level estimates. Moreover, this study also demonstrates for the first time that the intra‐seasonal to interannual changes contribute substantially to extreme sea levels and that El Niño can enhance this contribution on the Canadian Pacific coast.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".