Incidence trends and management of severe aortic valve stenosis in the community over 20 years of practice
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Severe aortic-stenosis (AS) is the guideline-based indication for aortic-valve-replacement (AVR) performance, which has markedly increased with transcatheter approaches, suggesting possible increasing AS incidence. However, reported secular trends of AS incidence remain contradictory, uncertain and lacking quantitative Doppler-Echocardiographic ascertainment. Thus, population-based trends in presentation, treatment and outcome are unknown. Methods All adults residents our County (MN,USA) diagnosed with incident (first-diagnosis) severe AS based on quantitative Doppler-Echocardiography (aortic-valve-area≤1cm2, aortic-valve-area-index≤0.6cm2/m2, mean-gradient≥40mmHg, peak-velocity≥4m/s, Doppler-velocity-index≤0.25) between 1997–2016, were accounted for and trends for incidence, presentation, treatment and outcome analysed. Results Incident severe-AS was diagnosed in 1069 community-residents over 20-years. Incidence-rate was 52.5[49.4–55.8] per 100.000 patient/year, slightly higher in male vs. female and was almost unchanged after age and sex adjustment for the US population 53.8[50.6–57.0] per-100000 residents/year. Over 20-years severe AS-incidence remained stable (p = 0.20) but absolute-burden of incident-cases markedly increased (p = 0.0004) due to population growth. Incidence-trend differed by sex, stable in men (incidence-rate-ratio 0.99, p = 0.72) but declining in women: (incidence-rate-ratio 0.93, p = 0.024). AS clinical-presentation, age, symptoms, comorbidity, ventricular size/function, valve-area-index, low-flow or low-ejection-fraction AS, remained stable. Over the study 20 years, AVR performance grew (1997–2001 to 2012–2016, at 3-month:14% to 21%, p = 0.02; at 1-year 19% to 33%,p<0.0001), and was more prompt (from 1.3[0.11–3.3]years in 1997–2001 to 0.48[0.15–2.11]years in 2013–2016, p = 0.001) but severe AS undertreatment remained prominent (>40%). Early-AVR (within 3-months) was associated with survival benefit (adjusted-hazard-ratio 0.55[0.42–0.71], p<0.0001) stable throughout the 20-years. Despite these improvements, overall mortality, 8.3% within 3-months, 17.8% within 1-year, 36% within 3-years, was swift, considerable and unabated (all p≥0.44) throughout the 20-year study. Conclusion Over 20 years, the population incidence of severe-AS remained stable with increased absolute case-burden purely related to population growth. Despite stable severe-AS presentation, AVR performance grew notably, but while declining, undertreatment remained substantial and disease-lethality did not decline. These findings have important population-health management implications.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".