Globalization, Structural Change and International Comovement
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We study the roles of globalization and structural change in the evolution of international GDP comovement among industrialized countries over the period 1978-2007.In recent decades, trade integration between advanced economies increased rapidly while average GDP correlations remained stable.We show that structural change -trend reallocation of economic activity towards services -plays an important part in resolving this apparent puzzle.Business cycle shocks in the service sector are less internationally correlated than in manufacturing, and thus structural change lowers GDP comovement by increasing the share of less correlated sectors in GDP.Globalization -trend reductions in trade costs -exerts two opposing effects on crossborder GDP comovement.On the one hand, greater trade linkages increase international transmission of shocks and therefore comovement.On the other, globalization induces structural change towards services because it reduces the relative price of traded goods, and services and goods are complements.We use a multi-country, multi-sector model of international production and trade to quantify these effects.The two opposing effects of globalization on comovement largely cancel each other out, limiting the net contribution of globalization to increasing international comovement over this period.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".