Gerry Doyle and Blake Herzinger, Carrier Killer: China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century by Benjamin “BJ” Armstrong
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the early dawn of 26 January 1929, USS Saratoga launched nearly every aircraft on its deck toward the Panama Canal.By 0700, the naval air strike achieved complete surprise, the exercise umpires of Fleet Problem IX ruling that bombers attacking the canal's locks had rendered the canal inoperable and the mission a success.As the aircraft completed their mission, however, the battleships of the "Blue Force" discovered Saratoga almost 150 miles away, as they swept the Gulf of Panama.In the ensuing mock engagement, as the battleships opened fire and a Blue Force submarine fired a full spread of torpedoes, the umpires ruled Saratoga sunk before the airwing had returned from their mission over the canal.The mixed results of Fleet Problem IX, where the Black Force conducted a long-range air strike and successfully completed their mission of closing the Panama Canal while the Blue Force succeeded in sinking their enemy's aircraft carrier, opened a debate that has ebbed and flowed for nearly a century.How does the vulnerability of the aircraft carrier affect the way a navy thinks about its fleet?Gerry Doyle and Blake Herzinger's Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century brings that debate into the twenty-first century with clear analysis, excellent illustrations, and a succinct look at how the People's Republic of China (PRC) intends to place American carrier vulnerability at the center of its maritime planning.Gerry Doyle is a writer and editor with Thomson Reuters, working in the Indo-Pacific region, who has covered politics and international affairs from the streets of Chicago to the Arab Spring.Blake Herzinger is a naval reserve officer who has spent most of his career in the Pacific and works as a consultant to the US Navy and Indo-Pacific Command out of Singapore.Together, they bring not only years of experience analyzing the Pacific world, but also a keen awareness of the complexity of both the military and political dynamics of the US Navy's growing concerns over the rise of the People's Republic of China.Over the course of six short chapters, Carrier Killer examines the history, technology, strategy, political symbolism and messaging, and tactics involved in the PRC's development of anti-ship ballistic missiles.Detailed and well researched open-access information on the DF-21 and DF-26 missile systems is at the core of the text, with the authors offering honest assessments of where the unclassified information may be flimsy or incomplete.They conclude the book with a thoughtful chapter entitled "Where do we go from here?" and a conclusion which brings together the key insights of the previous chapters and
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".